A time bomb has been created by demographics 

CanWest News Service - May 12, 2008

OTTAWA — When Prime Minister Stephen Harper gathered the country’s premiers at 24 Sussex Drive last fall, he wanted them to focus on what he saw as the country’s No. 1 economic problem: Within a decade or two, there simply will not be enough workers in the country.

Although recent headlines about thousands of layoffs in Canada’s struggling manufacturing sector may suggest otherwise, Harper and his cabinet are struggling to find ways to boost training programs and increase immigration to find more workers to avoid what some Conservative strategists say is an “economic time bomb.”

That Canada is heading for a problem seems unavoidable. In the last 50 years, Canada’s workforce grew by 200 per cent. That growth was responsible for raising standards of living and creating the public and private wealth the country now enjoys. But government forecasters say that, without some radical changes, the workforce will only grow by 11 per cent in the next 50 years — and that figure includes the effects of current levels of immigration.

“Our demographics are working against us,” Human Resources Minister Monte Solberg said in a speech yesterday to the Canadian Building and Construction Trades’ Legislative Conference.

“Baby boomers are set to retire and our low birth rate means demand for workers will soon outstrip supply.”

Already, more than 80 per cent of working-age Canadians have a job — an all-time high.

Solberg marshalled the following data to back up his claim:

- British Columbia will be short 350,000 workers over the next 12 years.

- Alberta will require 100,000 workers over the next 10 years.

- Ontario will need 560,000 more workers by 2030.

- Quebec will have 1.3 million job openings by 2016.

Canada’s labour market has consistently defied market forecasters for the last three years. Despite a high dollar, which makes Canadian workers relatively more expensive than workers in other countries, there were 325,000 new jobs created in Canada in the last 12 months. That job gain comes despite the loss of more than 113,000 jobs in manufacturing. In other words, the economy not only replaced those 113,000 lost manufacturing jobs, it also created an additional 325,000 jobs. The construction sector alone has grown by more than 103,000 workers.

And, as the Bank of Canada noted in its monetary policy report last week, year-over-year wage growth has been strong as well, suggesting that well-paying manufacturing jobs are being replaced with equally well-paying jobs elsewhere.